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Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant
Identifying order of symptom onset of infectious diseases might aid in differentiating symptomatic infections earlier in a population thereby enabling non-pharmaceutical interventions and reducing disease spread. Previously, we developed a mathematical model predicting the order of symptoms based on...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8675677/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34914688 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009629 |
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author | Larsen, Joseph R. Martin, Margaret R. Martin, John D. Hicks, James B. Kuhn, Peter |
author_facet | Larsen, Joseph R. Martin, Margaret R. Martin, John D. Hicks, James B. Kuhn, Peter |
author_sort | Larsen, Joseph R. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Identifying order of symptom onset of infectious diseases might aid in differentiating symptomatic infections earlier in a population thereby enabling non-pharmaceutical interventions and reducing disease spread. Previously, we developed a mathematical model predicting the order of symptoms based on data from the initial outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in China using symptom occurrence at diagnosis and found that the order of COVID-19 symptoms differed from that of other infectious diseases including influenza. Whether this order of COVID-19 symptoms holds in the USA under changing conditions is unclear. Here, we use modeling to predict the order of symptoms using data from both the initial outbreaks in China and in the USA. Whereas patients in China were more likely to have fever before cough and then nausea/vomiting before diarrhea, patients in the USA were more likely to have cough before fever and then diarrhea before nausea/vomiting. Given that the D614G SARS-CoV-2 variant that rapidly spread from Europe to predominate in the USA during the first wave of the outbreak was not present in the initial China outbreak, we hypothesized that this mutation might affect symptom order. Supporting this notion, we found that as SARS-CoV-2 in Japan shifted from the original Wuhan reference strain to the D614G variant, symptom order shifted to the USA pattern. Google Trends analyses supported these findings, while weather, age, and comorbidities did not affect our model’s predictions of symptom order. These findings indicate that symptom order can change with mutation in viral disease and raise the possibility that D614G variant is more transmissible because infected people are more likely to cough in public before being incapacitated with fever. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8675677 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86756772021-12-17 Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant Larsen, Joseph R. Martin, Margaret R. Martin, John D. Hicks, James B. Kuhn, Peter PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Identifying order of symptom onset of infectious diseases might aid in differentiating symptomatic infections earlier in a population thereby enabling non-pharmaceutical interventions and reducing disease spread. Previously, we developed a mathematical model predicting the order of symptoms based on data from the initial outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in China using symptom occurrence at diagnosis and found that the order of COVID-19 symptoms differed from that of other infectious diseases including influenza. Whether this order of COVID-19 symptoms holds in the USA under changing conditions is unclear. Here, we use modeling to predict the order of symptoms using data from both the initial outbreaks in China and in the USA. Whereas patients in China were more likely to have fever before cough and then nausea/vomiting before diarrhea, patients in the USA were more likely to have cough before fever and then diarrhea before nausea/vomiting. Given that the D614G SARS-CoV-2 variant that rapidly spread from Europe to predominate in the USA during the first wave of the outbreak was not present in the initial China outbreak, we hypothesized that this mutation might affect symptom order. Supporting this notion, we found that as SARS-CoV-2 in Japan shifted from the original Wuhan reference strain to the D614G variant, symptom order shifted to the USA pattern. Google Trends analyses supported these findings, while weather, age, and comorbidities did not affect our model’s predictions of symptom order. These findings indicate that symptom order can change with mutation in viral disease and raise the possibility that D614G variant is more transmissible because infected people are more likely to cough in public before being incapacitated with fever. Public Library of Science 2021-12-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8675677/ /pubmed/34914688 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009629 Text en © 2021 Larsen et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Larsen, Joseph R. Martin, Margaret R. Martin, John D. Hicks, James B. Kuhn, Peter Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant |
title | Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant |
title_full | Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant |
title_fullStr | Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant |
title_short | Modeling the onset of symptoms of COVID-19: Effects of SARS-CoV-2 variant |
title_sort | modeling the onset of symptoms of covid-19: effects of sars-cov-2 variant |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8675677/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34914688 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009629 |
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