Development and Validation of a Prognostic Gene Signature Correlated With M2 Macrophage Infiltration in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is the most common type of esophageal cancer and the seventh most prevalent cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Tumor microenvironment (TME) has been confirmed to play an crucial role in ESCC progression, prognosis, and the response to immunotherapy. There is a need for predictive biomarkers of TME-related processes to better prognosticate ESCC outcomes. AIM: To identify a novel gene signature linked with the TME to predict the prognosis of ESCC. METHODS: We calculated the immune/stromal scores of 95 ESCC samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) using the ESTIMATE algorithm, and identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between high and low immune/stromal score patients. The key prognostic genes were further analyzed by the intersection of protein–protein interaction (PPI) networks and univariate Cox regression analysis. Finally, a risk score model was constructed using multivariate Cox regression analysis. We evaluated the associations between the risk score model and immune infiltration via the CIBERSORT algorithm. Moreover, we validated the signature using the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Within the ten gene signature, five rarely reported genes were further validated with quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) using an ESCC tissue cDNA microarray. RESULTS: A total of 133 up-regulated genes were identified as DEGs. Ten prognostic genes were selected based on intersection analysis of univariate COX regression analysis and PPI, and consisted of C1QA, C1QB, C1QC, CD86, C3AR1, CSF1R, ITGB2, LCP2, SPI1, and TYROBP (HR>1, p<0.05). The expression of 9 of these genes in the tumor samples were significantly higher compared to matched adjacent normal tissue based on the GEO database (p<0.05). Next, we assessed the ability of the ten-gene signature to predict the overall survival of ESCC patients, and found that the high-risk group had significantly poorer outcomes compared to the low-risk group using univariate and multivariate analyses in the TCGA and GEO cohorts (HR=2.104, 95% confidence interval:1.343-3.295, p=0.001; HR=1.6915, 95% confidence interval:1.053-2.717, p=0.0297). Additionally, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated a relatively sensitive and specific profile for the signature (1-, 2-, 3-year AUC=0.672, 0.854, 0.81). To identify the basis for these differences in the TME, we performed correlation analyses and found a significant positive correlation with M1 and M2 macrophages and CD8+ T cells, as well as a strong correlation to M2 macrophage surface markers. A nomogram based on the risk score and select clinicopathologic characteristics was constructed to predict overall survival of ESCC patients. For validation, qRT-PCR of an ESCC patient cDNA microarray was performed, and demonstrated that C1QA, C3AR1, LCP2, SPI1, and TYROBP were up-regulated in tumor samples and predict poor prognosis. CONCLUSION: This study established and validated a novel 10-gene signature linked with M2 macrophages and poor prognosis in ESCC patients. Importantly, we identified C1QA, C3AR1, LCP2, SPI1, and TYROBP as novel M2 macrophage-correlated survival biomarkers. These findings may identify potential targets for therapy in ESCC patients.