Relationship of Noninvasive Assessment of Arterial Stiffness with 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) Risk in a General Middle-Age and Elderly Population

PURPOSE: As a powerful indicator of arterial stiffening, the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) has been extensively validated for predicting cardiovascular events. However, whether and how the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is correlated with the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk in Chinese population. METHODS: A total of 1768 subjects were enrolled from Shanghai, China. They were divided into two groups according to the Pooled Cohorts Equations model made by ACC/AHA as follows: low ASCVD risk (n = 992, 10-year ASCVD risk <7.5%) and high ASCVD risk (n = 776, 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%). The baseline characteristics were obtained via the use of a questionnaire. Measurement of baPWV, laboratory tests, and echocardiography were conducted by trained physicians. The relationship between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk was evaluated using multiple logistic regression model and generalized additive model. RESULTS: The mean age of the subjects was 58.89±8.60 years, 32.69% of which were male. Non-linear relationship analysis revealed threshold effects between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk in which a baPWV of approximately 16 m/s might be the threshold effect of 10-year ASCVD risk. After multivariable adjustment, logistic-regression analysis demonstrated that ankle-brachial index (ABI) (OR 5.28, 95% CI 1.20–12.23) and baPWV (OR 9.09, 95% CI 6.84–12.07) were independently correlated with 10-year ASCVD risk. The AUC for baPWV for predicting 10-year ASCVD risk was 0.80 (95% CI 0.78–0.82). CONCLUSION: Increased baPWV as an indicator of arterial stiffness correlates strongly with 10-year ASCVD risk in general middle-aged and elderly populations. The association between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk is not purely linear but non-linear. Subjects with baPWV above 16 m/s are more likely to encounter a higher 10-year ASCVD risk.