Serum gastrin-17 concentration for prediction of upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding risk among peptic ulcer patients

BACKGROUND: Serum gastrin-17 (G-17), pepsinogen I (PGI), and pepsinogen II (PGII) concentrations regulate gastric acid secretion, and hypersecretion of gastric acid increases the risks of peptic ulcer and upper gastrointestinal bleeding. These associations suggest that serum G-17, PGI, and (or) PGII may predict gastrointestinal bleeding risk among peptic ulcer patients. AIM: To evaluate the efficacies of serum G-17, PGI, PGII, and PGI/PGII ratio (PGR) for predicting upper gastrointestinal bleeding among peptic ulcer patients. METHODS: A total of 199 patients diagnosed with peptic ulcer confirmed by gastroscopy and positivity for Helicobacter pylori by the (14)C-urea breath test were recruited, including 107 patients with simple peptic ulcer and 92 cases complicated by upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Serum PGI, PGII, G-17, and PGR were measured by immune methods and compared between bleeding and non-bleeding groups by univariate analysis. The specificity and sensitivity of PGs and G-17 for evaluating upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk were then assessed by constructing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Serum G-17 was significantly higher among peptic ulcer patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding compared to simple peptic ulcer patients (25.34 ± 14.29 vs 8.84 ± 8.03 pmol/L, t = 9.822, P < 0.01), whereas serum PGI, PGII, and PGR did not differ significantly between bleeding and non-bleeding groups (all P > 0.05). The risk of bleeding was significantly higher among peptic ulcer patients with elevated serum G-17 (> 15 pmol/L) compared to patients with normal or low serum G-17 (73.2% vs 27.4%, χ(2 )= 40.72, P < 0.01). The area under the ROC curve for serum G-17 was 0.866 ± 0.024, and a cut-off of 9.86 pmol/L yielded 90.2% sensitivity and 68.2% specificity for distinguishing peptic ulcer with and without upper gastrointestinal bleeding. CONCLUSION: Serum G-17 is significantly upregulated in peptic ulcer patients and higher levels are predictive of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Conversely, serum PGI, PGII, and PGR have no predictive value. Further prospective studies are warranted to examine if high G-17 can be used to assess risk of bleeding prior to onset.