Salivary cystatin S levels in children with early childhood caries in comparison with caries-free children; statistical analysis and machine learning

BACKGROUND: Early childhood caries is the most common infectious disease in childhood, with a high prevalence in developing countries. The assessment of the variables that influence early childhood caries as well as its pathophysiology leads to improved control of this disease. Cystatin S, as one of the salivary proteins, has an essential role in pellicle formation, tooth re-mineralization, and protection. The present study aims to assess salivary cystatin S levels and demographic data in early childhood caries in comparison with caries-free ones using statistical analysis and machine learning methods. METHODS: A cross-sectional, case–control study was undertaken on 20 cases of early childhood caries and 20 caries-free children as a control. Unstimulated whole saliva samples were collected by suction. Cystatin S concentrations in samples were determined using human cystatin S ELISA kit. The checklist was collected from participants about demographic characteristics, oral health status, and dietary habits by interviewing parents. Regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were done to evaluate the potential role of cystatin S salivary level and demographic using statistical analysis and machine learning. RESULTS: The mean value of salivary cystatin S concentration in the early childhood caries group was 191.55 ± 81.90 (ng/ml) and in the caries-free group was 370.06 ± 128.87 (ng/ml). T-test analysis showed a statistically significant difference between early childhood caries and caries-free groups in salivary cystatin S levels (p = 0.032). Investigation of the area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy of the ROC curve revealed that the logistic regression model based on salivary cystatin S levels and birth weight had the most and acceptable potential for discriminating of early childhood caries from caries-free controls. Furthermore, using salivary cystatin S levels enhanced the capability of machine learning methods to differentiate early childhood caries from caries-free controls. CONCLUSION: Salivary cystatin S levels in caries-free children were higher than the children with early childhood caries. Results of the present study suggest that considering clinical examination, demographic and socioeconomic factors, along with the salivary cystatin S levels, could be usefull for early diagnosis ofearly childhood caries in high-risk children; furthermore, cystatin S is a protective factor against dental caries. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12903-021-02016-x.