Cargando…
Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory
We develop a site-bond percolation model, called PERCOVID, in order to describe the time evolution of all epidemics propagating through respiratory tract or by skin contacts in human populations. This model is based on a network of social relationships representing interconnected households experien...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8692486/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34934152 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03812-9 |
_version_ | 1784618957635846144 |
---|---|
author | Mathiot, Jean-François Gerbaud, Laurent Breton, Vincent |
author_facet | Mathiot, Jean-François Gerbaud, Laurent Breton, Vincent |
author_sort | Mathiot, Jean-François |
collection | PubMed |
description | We develop a site-bond percolation model, called PERCOVID, in order to describe the time evolution of all epidemics propagating through respiratory tract or by skin contacts in human populations. This model is based on a network of social relationships representing interconnected households experiencing governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a very first testing ground, we apply our model to the understanding of the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in France from December 2019 up to December 2021. Our model shows the impact of lockdowns and curfews, as well as the influence of the progressive vaccination campaign in order to keep COVID-19 pandemic under the percolation threshold. We illustrate the role played by social interactions by comparing two typical scenarios with low or high strengths of social relationships as compared to France during the first wave in March 2020. We investigate finally the role played by the α and δ variants in the evolution of the epidemic in France till autumn 2021, paying particular attention to the essential role played by the vaccination. Our model predicts that the rise of the epidemic observed in July and August 2021 would not result in a new major epidemic wave in France. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8692486 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86924862021-12-28 Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory Mathiot, Jean-François Gerbaud, Laurent Breton, Vincent Sci Rep Article We develop a site-bond percolation model, called PERCOVID, in order to describe the time evolution of all epidemics propagating through respiratory tract or by skin contacts in human populations. This model is based on a network of social relationships representing interconnected households experiencing governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a very first testing ground, we apply our model to the understanding of the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in France from December 2019 up to December 2021. Our model shows the impact of lockdowns and curfews, as well as the influence of the progressive vaccination campaign in order to keep COVID-19 pandemic under the percolation threshold. We illustrate the role played by social interactions by comparing two typical scenarios with low or high strengths of social relationships as compared to France during the first wave in March 2020. We investigate finally the role played by the α and δ variants in the evolution of the epidemic in France till autumn 2021, paying particular attention to the essential role played by the vaccination. Our model predicts that the rise of the epidemic observed in July and August 2021 would not result in a new major epidemic wave in France. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-12-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8692486/ /pubmed/34934152 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03812-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Mathiot, Jean-François Gerbaud, Laurent Breton, Vincent Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
title | Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
title_full | Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
title_fullStr | Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
title_full_unstemmed | Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
title_short | Highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
title_sort | highlighting the impact of social relationships on the propagation of respiratory viruses using percolation theory |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8692486/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34934152 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03812-9 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT mathiotjeanfrancois highlightingtheimpactofsocialrelationshipsonthepropagationofrespiratoryvirusesusingpercolationtheory AT gerbaudlaurent highlightingtheimpactofsocialrelationshipsonthepropagationofrespiratoryvirusesusingpercolationtheory AT bretonvincent highlightingtheimpactofsocialrelationshipsonthepropagationofrespiratoryvirusesusingpercolationtheory |