Oceanographic and biogeochemical drivers cause divergent trends in the nitrogen isoscape in a changing Arctic Ocean

Nitrogen stable isotopes (δ(15)N) are used to study food web and foraging dynamics due to the step-wise enrichment of tissues with increasing trophic level, but they rely on the isoscape baseline that varies markedly in the Arctic due to the interplay between Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters. Using a hierarchy of simulations with a state-of-the-art ocean-biogeochemical model, we demonstrate that the canonical isotopic gradient of 2–3‰ between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic Ocean has grown to 3–4‰ and will continue to expand under a high emissions climate change scenario by the end of the twenty-first century. δ(15)N increases in the Pacific-influenced high Arctic due to increased primary production, while Atlantic sector decreases result from the integrated effects of Atlantic inflow and anthropogenic inputs. While these trends will complicate longitudinal food web studies using δ(15)N, they may aid those focussed on movement as the Arctic isoscape becomes more regionally distinct. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01635-6.