The cost-effectiveness of social distancing measures for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in a highly-populated country: A case study in Indonesia

BACKGROUND: As one of the strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing (SD) measures are recommended to control disease spread and reduce the attack rate. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the costs and effects of SD measures through school closures, workforce, and community contact reductions for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. METHODS: Two mitigation scenarios of SD for 1 month and continuous SD were compared with the baseline (no intervention). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model accounting for disease spread during the latent period was applied by considering a 1-year time horizon. The costs of healthcare, school closures, and productivity loss due to disease as well as intervention were considered to estimate the total pandemic cost among all scenarios. RESULTS: In a comparison with the baseline, the result showed that total savings in scenarios of SD for 1 month and continuous SD was approximately $415 billion and $699 billion, respectively, while the averted deaths were 4.6 million and 8.5 million, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that basic reproduction number, infectious period, daily wage, incubation period, daily ICU admission cost, and case fatality rate were the most influential parameters affecting the savings and the number of averted deaths. CONCLUSIONS: SD measures through school closures, workforce, and community contact reductions were concluded to be cost-saving. Increasing the duration of social distancing tends to increase both the savings and the number of averted deaths.