Phylogeography and Re-Evaluation of Evolutionary Rate of Powassan Virus Using Complete Genome Data

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The evolution of human pathogenic viruses is one of the pressing problems of modern biology and directly relevant to public health. Many important aspects of virus evolution (e.g., evolutionary rate, population size, and migration history) are ‘hidden’ from the naked eye of a researcher. Modern bioinformatics methods make it possible to evaluate and visualize such evolutionary particularities of viruses. In this paper, we reconstructed the migration history and estimated the evolutionary rate of one of the most dangerous neuroinvasive and neurotropic tick-borne flaviviruses—Powassan virus (POWV)—distributed in North America and the Far East of Russia. Using the dates obtained, we hypothesized that the divergence of the most recent common ancestor of POWV into two independent genetic lineages most likely occurred because of the melting of glaciers that began at 11.72 Kya in the Holocene due to the climate warming-caused flooding of the isthmus between Eurasia and North America. ABSTRACT: In this paper, we revealed the genetic structure and migration history of the Powassan virus (POWV) reconstructed based on 25 complete genomes available in NCBI and ViPR databases (accessed in June 2021). The usage of this data set allowed us to perform a more precise assessment of the evolutionary rate of this virus. In addition, we proposed a simple Bayesian technique for the evaluation and visualization of ‘temporal signal dynamics’ along the phylogenetic tree. We showed that the evolutionary rate value of POWV is 3.3 × 10(−5) nucleotide substitution per site per year (95% HPD, 2.0 × 10(−5)–4.7 × 10(−5)), which is lower than values reported in the previous studies. Divergence of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of POWV into two independent genetic lineages most likely occurred in the period between 2600 and 6030 years ago. We assume that the divergence of the virus lineages happened due to the melting of glaciers about 12,000 years ago, which led to the disappearance of the Bering Land Bridge between Eurasia and North America (the modern Alaskan territory) and spatial division of the viral areal into two parts. Genomic data provide evidence of the virus migrations between two continents. The mean migration rate detected from the Far East of Russia to North America was one event per 1750 years. The migration to the opposite direction occurred approximately once per 475 years.