Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Response in Rectal Cancer with Metric Learning Using Pretreatment 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) before surgery is the mainstay of treatment for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Based on baseline 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose ([18F]-FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT), a new artificial intelligence model was introduced to predict responses to NCRT. The model employed metric learning combined with the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for dimensionality reduction. The treatment response was scored by Dworak tumor regression grade (TRG); TRG3 and TRG4 indicated favorable responses. Using this model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96 for predicting a favorable response. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 98.3%, 96.5%, and 97.5%, respectively. After further external validation, oncologists may use the proposed model to advise patients on the relative suitability of treatment options, including the therapeutic decision between NCRT and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Integrating this approach would have a notable effect on counseling patients about treatment alternatives or prognoses. ABSTRACT: Objectives: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by surgery is the mainstay of treatment for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Based on baseline 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose ([18F]-FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT), a new artificial intelligence model using metric learning (ML) was introduced to predict responses to NCRT. Patients and Methods: This study used the data of 236 patients with newly diagnosed rectal cancer; the data of 202 and 34 patients were for training and validation, respectively. All patients received pretreatment [18F]FDG-PET/CT, NCRT, and surgery. The treatment response was scored by Dworak tumor regression grade (TRG); TRG3 and TRG4 indicated favorable responses. The model employed ML combined with the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for dimensionality reduction. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the model’s predictive performance. Results: In the training cohort, 115 patients (57%) achieved TRG3 or TRG4 responses. The area under the ROC curve was 0.96 for the prediction of a favorable response. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 98.3%, 96.5%, and 97.5%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the validation cohort were 95.0%, 100%, and 98.8%, respectively. Conclusions: The new ML model presented herein was used to determined that baseline 18F[FDG]-PET/CT images could predict a favorable response to NCRT in patients with rectal cancer. External validation is required to verify the model’s predictive value.