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Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization

For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there...

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Autores principales: Miura, Fuminari, Leung, Ka Yin, Klinkenberg, Don, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Wallinga, Jacco
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8699630/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34898617
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009697
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author Miura, Fuminari
Leung, Ka Yin
Klinkenberg, Don
Ainslie, Kylie E. C.
Wallinga, Jacco
author_facet Miura, Fuminari
Leung, Ka Yin
Klinkenberg, Don
Ainslie, Kylie E. C.
Wallinga, Jacco
author_sort Miura, Fuminari
collection PubMed
description For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible allocation schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest. We use an approximation method to reconstruct the age-specific transmission intensity (the next generation matrix), and express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. This approach to allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies.
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spelling pubmed-86996302021-12-24 Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization Miura, Fuminari Leung, Ka Yin Klinkenberg, Don Ainslie, Kylie E. C. Wallinga, Jacco PLoS Comput Biol Research Article For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible allocation schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest. We use an approximation method to reconstruct the age-specific transmission intensity (the next generation matrix), and express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. This approach to allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies. Public Library of Science 2021-12-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8699630/ /pubmed/34898617 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009697 Text en © 2021 Miura et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Miura, Fuminari
Leung, Ka Yin
Klinkenberg, Don
Ainslie, Kylie E. C.
Wallinga, Jacco
Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
title Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
title_full Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
title_fullStr Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
title_full_unstemmed Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
title_short Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
title_sort optimal vaccine allocation for covid-19 in the netherlands: a data-driven prioritization
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8699630/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34898617
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009697
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