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Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test
Evaluation of appropriate physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is vital for accurately forecasting tropical cyclones. Three cyclones Nargis, Titli and Fani have been chosen to investigate the combination of five cloud microphysics (MP), three cumulus...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8709857/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34952900 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02723-z |
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author | Shenoy, Meenakshi Raju, P. V. S. Prasad, Jagdish |
author_facet | Shenoy, Meenakshi Raju, P. V. S. Prasad, Jagdish |
author_sort | Shenoy, Meenakshi |
collection | PubMed |
description | Evaluation of appropriate physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is vital for accurately forecasting tropical cyclones. Three cyclones Nargis, Titli and Fani have been chosen to investigate the combination of five cloud microphysics (MP), three cumulus convection (CC), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes of the WRF model (ver. 4.0) with ARW core with respect to track and intensity to determine an optimal combination of these physical schemes. The initial and boundary conditions for sensitivity experiments are drawn from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecasting system (GFS) data. Simulated track and intensity of three cyclonic cases are compared with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is applied to check the significance of the data obtained from the model. Further, Tukey’s test is applied for post-hoc analysis in order to identify the cluster of treatments close to IMD observations for all three cyclones. Results are obtained through the statistical analysis; average root means square error (RMSE) of intensity throughout the cyclone period and time error at landfall with the step-by-step elimination method. Through the elimination method, the optimal scheme combination is obtained. The YSU planetary boundary layer with Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection and Ferrier microphysics scheme combination is identified as an optimal combination in this study for the forecasting of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8709857 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87098572021-12-28 Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test Shenoy, Meenakshi Raju, P. V. S. Prasad, Jagdish Sci Rep Article Evaluation of appropriate physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is vital for accurately forecasting tropical cyclones. Three cyclones Nargis, Titli and Fani have been chosen to investigate the combination of five cloud microphysics (MP), three cumulus convection (CC), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes of the WRF model (ver. 4.0) with ARW core with respect to track and intensity to determine an optimal combination of these physical schemes. The initial and boundary conditions for sensitivity experiments are drawn from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecasting system (GFS) data. Simulated track and intensity of three cyclonic cases are compared with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is applied to check the significance of the data obtained from the model. Further, Tukey’s test is applied for post-hoc analysis in order to identify the cluster of treatments close to IMD observations for all three cyclones. Results are obtained through the statistical analysis; average root means square error (RMSE) of intensity throughout the cyclone period and time error at landfall with the step-by-step elimination method. Through the elimination method, the optimal scheme combination is obtained. The YSU planetary boundary layer with Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection and Ferrier microphysics scheme combination is identified as an optimal combination in this study for the forecasting of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-12-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8709857/ /pubmed/34952900 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02723-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Shenoy, Meenakshi Raju, P. V. S. Prasad, Jagdish Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test |
title | Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test |
title_full | Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test |
title_fullStr | Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test |
title_full_unstemmed | Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test |
title_short | Optimization of physical schemes in WRF model on cyclone simulations over Bay of Bengal using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test |
title_sort | optimization of physical schemes in wrf model on cyclone simulations over bay of bengal using one-way anova and tukey’s test |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8709857/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34952900 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02723-z |
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