Cargando…
Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study
We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population. We use this model to estimate the risk of an infectious traveller causing a community outbreak under various border control strate...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
KeAi Publishing
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8712670/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34977439 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.12.006 |
_version_ | 1784623603855130624 |
---|---|
author | Steyn, Nicholas Lustig, Audrey Hendy, Shaun C. Binny, Rachelle N. Plank, Michael J. |
author_facet | Steyn, Nicholas Lustig, Audrey Hendy, Shaun C. Binny, Rachelle N. Plank, Michael J. |
author_sort | Steyn, Nicholas |
collection | PubMed |
description | We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population. We use this model to estimate the risk of an infectious traveller causing a community outbreak under various border control strategies and different levels of vaccine coverage in the population. Results are calculated from N = 100,000 independent realisations of the stochastic model. We find that strategies that rely on home isolation are significantly higher risk than the current mandatory 14-day stay in government-managed isolation. Nevertheless, combinations of testing and home isolation can still reduce the risk of a community outbreak to around one outbreak per 100 infected travellers. We also find that, under some circumstances, using daily lateral flow tests or a combination of lateral flow tests and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests can reduce risk to a comparable or lower level than using PCR tests alone. Combined with controls on the number of travellers from countries with high prevalence of COVID-19, our results allow different options for managing the risk of COVID-19 at the border to be compared. This can be used to inform strategies for relaxing border controls in a phased way, while limiting the risk of community outbreaks as vaccine coverage increases. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8712670 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | KeAi Publishing |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87126702021-12-28 Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study Steyn, Nicholas Lustig, Audrey Hendy, Shaun C. Binny, Rachelle N. Plank, Michael J. Infect Dis Model Original Research Article We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population. We use this model to estimate the risk of an infectious traveller causing a community outbreak under various border control strategies and different levels of vaccine coverage in the population. Results are calculated from N = 100,000 independent realisations of the stochastic model. We find that strategies that rely on home isolation are significantly higher risk than the current mandatory 14-day stay in government-managed isolation. Nevertheless, combinations of testing and home isolation can still reduce the risk of a community outbreak to around one outbreak per 100 infected travellers. We also find that, under some circumstances, using daily lateral flow tests or a combination of lateral flow tests and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests can reduce risk to a comparable or lower level than using PCR tests alone. Combined with controls on the number of travellers from countries with high prevalence of COVID-19, our results allow different options for managing the risk of COVID-19 at the border to be compared. This can be used to inform strategies for relaxing border controls in a phased way, while limiting the risk of community outbreaks as vaccine coverage increases. KeAi Publishing 2021-12-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8712670/ /pubmed/34977439 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.12.006 Text en © 2021 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Original Research Article Steyn, Nicholas Lustig, Audrey Hendy, Shaun C. Binny, Rachelle N. Plank, Michael J. Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study |
title | Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study |
title_full | Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study |
title_fullStr | Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed | Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study |
title_short | Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study |
title_sort | effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of covid-19 in new zealand: a modelling study |
topic | Original Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8712670/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34977439 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.12.006 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT steynnicholas effectofvaccinationbordertestingandquarantinerequirementsontheriskofcovid19innewzealandamodellingstudy AT lustigaudrey effectofvaccinationbordertestingandquarantinerequirementsontheriskofcovid19innewzealandamodellingstudy AT hendyshaunc effectofvaccinationbordertestingandquarantinerequirementsontheriskofcovid19innewzealandamodellingstudy AT binnyrachellen effectofvaccinationbordertestingandquarantinerequirementsontheriskofcovid19innewzealandamodellingstudy AT plankmichaelj effectofvaccinationbordertestingandquarantinerequirementsontheriskofcovid19innewzealandamodellingstudy |