Prediction Models for Impending Death Using Physical Signs and Vital Signs in Noncancer Patients: A Prospective Longitudinal Observational Study

Background: Accurate information on the prognosis in the last days of life is essential for providing better end-of-life care; however, few studies have examined the signs of impending death (SID) or developed short-term prediction models in noncancer patients. Objective: To investigate the prevalence and onset of SID and to develop models that predict death within 7 days, 72 hours, and 24 hours in noncancer patients. Design: This is a prospective longitudinal observational study. Setting/Subjects: Subjects were noncancer patients admitted to a hospital in Japan between 2019 and 2020. Measurements: We investigated 11 physical signs and vital signs every 12 hours until death after confirming a reduced daily oral intake to less than a few mouthfuls. Results: We analyzed data from 50 noncancer patients. The prediction model “pulselessness of the radial artery OR respiration of mandibular movement OR the shock Index (SI) >1.0” predicted death within 7 days with an accuracy of 83.9%, whereas the models developed to predict death within 72 and 24 hours had an accuracy of 65.0% or less. The median onset of all signs was within 3 days of death. The frequencies of decreased response to verbal stimuli and decreased response to visual stimuli were 76.0% and 74.0%, respectively. Conclusions: The prediction model using physical signs and SI predicted death within 7 days in noncancer patients with high accuracy. The prediction of death within 72 and 24 hours in noncancer patients requires investigation of physical signs not examined in this study.