Development of hepatocellular carcinoma from various phases of chronic hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is insufficient data on the clinical course of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients in the immune-tolerant (IT) and immune-clearance, inactive (IC) phases over a long follow-up period. DESIGN: We enrolled 466 CHB patients from our historical cohort, including 56 IT+MA (mildly active), 134 IC, 230 with chronic active hepatitis (CH) and 46 with liver cirrhosis (LC), who were categorized to each phase by at least one year of follow-up period from the first visit to our hospital. We investigated long-term risks, and their factors, of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the transition between the clinical phases, especially in the IT+MA and IC groups. RESULTS: Of the 56 patients in the IT+MA group, 27 remained the IT+MA phase, but 29 transitioned to the CH phase and started nucleot(s)ide analogue (NA) treatment during the follow-up period. Meanwhile, of the 134 patients in the IC group, only 5 started NA treatment after progressing to the CH phase. The development of HCC from the IT+MA, IC, CH, and LC groups was observed in 2, 2, 9, and 20 cases, respectively. The cumulative incidence rates of developing HCC in the IT+MA, IC, CH, and LC groups were 9.9, 1.8, 3.0, and 53.1% at 10 years. In the CH and LC group, patients who developed HCC were older, had higher levels of FIB-4 index, M2BPGi, HBcrAg and AFP, and had lower levels of albumin and platelet counts. In CH patients, FIB-4 index levels were elevated at the diagnosis of HCC compared to baseline, whereas these decreased during the follow-up period in non-HCC patients. CONCLUSIONS: HCC occurred at a certain rate among patients in the IT+MA and IC groups. Careful follow-up is required for CH patients with higher levels of FIB-4 index and/or M2BPGi because of the high incidence of HCC development. (299 words)