Regional Differences in COVID-19 Mortality Rates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A Simulation of the New Model of Care

Background This study aimed to assess regional COVID-19 mortality rates and compare the five proposed business units (BUs). Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in the Ministry of Health (MOH) hospitals in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). We included 1743 adults (≥ 18 years of age) with COVID-19 admitted to any of 30 MOH hospitals. Results The inpatients had confirmed mild to severe COVID-19 between March and mid-July 2020. The central BU (Riyadh) was used as the reference. MOH electronic health record data were reviewed and utilized, including variables reflecting hospital course (mortality and discharge status). The primary outcome was COVID-19-related inpatient death. Covariates included patient demographics, pre-existing chronic diseases, and COVID-19-related complications. The data were analysed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. KSA inpatient mortality was 30%. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that COVID-19-related mortality was significantly higher in the northern and western BUs and significantly lower in the southern and eastern BUs than in the central BU. On controlling for other variables, adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for essential COVID-19 mortality predictors during admission, using the central BU as a reference, were as 9.90 [95% CI, 4.53-21.61] and 1.55 [95% CI, 1.04-2.13] times higher in the northern and western BUs, respectively, and 0.60 [95% CI, 0.36-0.99] and 0.23 [95% CI, 0.14-0.038] times lower in the southern and eastern BUs, respectively. Conclusion The five BUs differed in COVID-19 mortality rates after adjusting for patient and disease characteristics, with the differences consistent with those in the regions comprising the BUs. These outcome differences apparently relate to differences in healthcare resources and quality.