The Dynamic Changes of AFP From Baseline to Recurrence as an Excellent Prognostic Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Locoregional Therapy: A 5-Year Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have confirmed the prognostic value of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the association between AFP at baseline (b-AFP), subsequent AFP at relapse (r-AFP), and AFP alteration and overall survival in HCC patients receiving locoregional therapy has rarely been systematically elucidated. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 583 subjects with newly diagnosis of virus-related HCC who were admitted to Beijing You ‘an Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016 were prospectively enrolled. The influence of b-AFP, subsequent r-AFP, and AFP alteration on relapse and post-recurrence survival were analyzed. RESULTS: By the end of follow-up, a total of 431 (73.9%) patients relapsed and 200 (34.3%) died. Patients with positive b-AFP had a 24% increased risk of recurrence compared with those who were negative. Patients with positive r-AFP had a 68% increased risk of death after relapse compared with those who were negative. The cumulative recurrence-death survival (RDS) rates for 1, 3, 5 years in patients with negative r-AFP were 85.6% (184/215), 70.2%(151/215), and 67.4%(145/215), while the corresponding rates were 75.1% (154/205), 51.2% (105/205), and 48.8% (100/205) in those with positive AFP (P<0.001). 35 (21.6%) of the 162 patients with negative b-AFP turned positive at the time of recurrence, and of this subset, only 12 (34.3%) survived. Of the 255 patients with positive b-AFP, 86 (33.7%) turned negative at the time of relapse, and of this subset, only 30 (34.9%) died. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative RDS rates were also compared among groups stratified by AFP at baseline and relapse. The present study found that patients with positive AFP at baseline and relapse, as well as those who were negative turned positive, had the shortest RDS and OS. CONCLUSIONS: Not only AFP at baseline but also subsequent AFP at relapse can be used to predict a post-recurrence survival, which can help evaluate mortality risk stratification of patients after relapse.