Phylogenetic diversity and community assembly in a naturally fragmented system

We sought to assess effects of fragmentation and quantify the contribution of ecological processes to community assembly by measuring species richness, phylogenetic, and phenotypic diversity of species found in local and regional plant communities. Specifically, our fragmented system is Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve, Idaho, USA. CRMO is characterized by vegetated islands, kipukas, that are isolated in a matrix of lava. We used floristic surveys of vascular plants in 19 kipukas to create a local species list to compare traditional dispersion metrics, mean pairwise distance, and mean nearest taxon distance (MPD and MNTD), to a regional species list with phenotypic and phylogenetic data. We combined phylogenetic and functional trait data in a novel machine‐learning model selection approach, Community Assembly Model Inference (CAMI), to infer probability associated with different models of community assembly given the data. Finally, we used linear regression to explore whether the geography of kipukas explained estimated support for community assembly models. Using traditional metrics of MPD and MNTD neutral processes received the most support when comparing kipuka species to regional species. Individually no kipukas showed significant support for overdispersion. Rather, five kipukas showed significant support for phylogenetic clustering using MPD and two kipukas using MNTD. Using CAMI, we inferred neutral and filtering models structured the kipuka plant community for our trait of interest. Finally, we found as species richness in kipukas increases, model support for competition decreases and lower elevation kipukas show more support for habitat filtering models. While traditional phylogenetic community approaches suggest neutral assembly dynamics, recently developed approaches utilizing machine learning and model choice revealed joint influences of assembly processes to form the kipuka plant communities. Understanding ecological processes at play in naturally fragmented systems will aid in guiding our understanding of how fragmentation impacts future changes in landscapes.