Added value of systemic inflammation markers in predicting pulmonary infection in stroke patients: A retrospective study by machine learning analysis

Exploring candidate markers to predict the clinical outcomes of pulmonary infection in stroke patients have a high unmet need. This study aimed to develop machine learning (ML)-based predictive models for pulmonary infection. Between January 2008 and April 2021, a retrospective analysis of 1397 stroke patients who had CT angiography from skull to diaphragm (including CT of the chest) within 24 hours of symptom onset. A total of 21 variables were included, and the prediction model of pulmonary infection was established by multiple ML-based algorithms. Risk factors for pulmonary infection were determined by the feature selection method. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to determine the model with the best resolution and to assess the net clinical benefits associated with the use of predictive models, respectively. A total of 889 cases were included in this study as a training group, while 508 cases were as a validation group. The feature selection indicated the top 6 predictors were procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, soluble interleukin-2 receptor, consciousness disorder, dysphagia, and invasive procedure. The AUCs of the 5 models ranged from 0.78 to 0.87 in the training cohort. When the ML-based models were applied to the validation set, the results also remained reconcilable, and the AUC was between 0.891 and 0.804. The decision curve analysis also showed performed better than positive line and negative line, indicating the favorable predictive performance and clinical values of the models. By incorporating clinical characteristics and systemic inflammation markers, it is feasible to develop ML-based models for the presence and consequences of signs of pulmonary infection in stroke patients, and the use of the model may be greatly beneficial to clinicians in risk stratification and management decisions.