Cargando…

Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany

OBJECTIVE: The Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony has been existing since 1999. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence rates, cohort and point prevalence, and the trends of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents based on the registry data over the past 21 years. METHODS: A...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Manuwald, Ulf, Schoffer, Olaf, Kugler, Joachim, Riemenschneider, Henna, Kapellen, Thomas Michael, Kiess, Wieland, Rothe, Ulrike
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8719733/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34972197
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262171
_version_ 1784625000186118144
author Manuwald, Ulf
Schoffer, Olaf
Kugler, Joachim
Riemenschneider, Henna
Kapellen, Thomas Michael
Kiess, Wieland
Rothe, Ulrike
author_facet Manuwald, Ulf
Schoffer, Olaf
Kugler, Joachim
Riemenschneider, Henna
Kapellen, Thomas Michael
Kiess, Wieland
Rothe, Ulrike
author_sort Manuwald, Ulf
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: The Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony has been existing since 1999. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence rates, cohort and point prevalence, and the trends of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents based on the registry data over the past 21 years. METHODS: A completeness check of the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony for the observation period 2012–2019 was performed using the capture-recapture method. The age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person years (PY) were estimated for the observation period 1999–2019. Prevalence was estimated per 100,000 children and adolescents as the point prevalence of five consecutive years, and as a cohort prevalence for the birth cohorts, which result from the difference of age and year at diagnosis. Trend analyses were executed using join point regression. RESULTS: A completeness of 98% (95% CI 89–100) was determined for the period from 2012 to 2019. The standardized incidence rate of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents increased from 17.1 per 100,000 PY in 1999 to 24.7 per 100,000 PY in 2019. If this trend continues, the incidence rate will increase to 34.8 (95% CI 24.4–49.6) per 100,000 PY in 2030. The point prevalence of 5 consecutive years did not show a continuous trend over time. According to this method, the prevalence reached a plateau in the last segment (2013–2019). The calculation of cohort prevalence indicated a continuous increase from 2013 to 2019 with no significant statistical difference in terms of sex. CONCLUSION: The point prevalence and the last incidence rates indicate that type 1 diabetes of children and adolescents is slowing down or has reached a plateau in Saxony. Nevertheless, the cohort prevalence predicts a steady increase. Future studies should continue investigating these trends in a longer observation period and consider including possible correlating environmental factors.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8719733
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-87197332022-01-01 Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany Manuwald, Ulf Schoffer, Olaf Kugler, Joachim Riemenschneider, Henna Kapellen, Thomas Michael Kiess, Wieland Rothe, Ulrike PLoS One Research Article OBJECTIVE: The Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony has been existing since 1999. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence rates, cohort and point prevalence, and the trends of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents based on the registry data over the past 21 years. METHODS: A completeness check of the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony for the observation period 2012–2019 was performed using the capture-recapture method. The age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person years (PY) were estimated for the observation period 1999–2019. Prevalence was estimated per 100,000 children and adolescents as the point prevalence of five consecutive years, and as a cohort prevalence for the birth cohorts, which result from the difference of age and year at diagnosis. Trend analyses were executed using join point regression. RESULTS: A completeness of 98% (95% CI 89–100) was determined for the period from 2012 to 2019. The standardized incidence rate of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents increased from 17.1 per 100,000 PY in 1999 to 24.7 per 100,000 PY in 2019. If this trend continues, the incidence rate will increase to 34.8 (95% CI 24.4–49.6) per 100,000 PY in 2030. The point prevalence of 5 consecutive years did not show a continuous trend over time. According to this method, the prevalence reached a plateau in the last segment (2013–2019). The calculation of cohort prevalence indicated a continuous increase from 2013 to 2019 with no significant statistical difference in terms of sex. CONCLUSION: The point prevalence and the last incidence rates indicate that type 1 diabetes of children and adolescents is slowing down or has reached a plateau in Saxony. Nevertheless, the cohort prevalence predicts a steady increase. Future studies should continue investigating these trends in a longer observation period and consider including possible correlating environmental factors. Public Library of Science 2021-12-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8719733/ /pubmed/34972197 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262171 Text en © 2021 Manuwald et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Manuwald, Ulf
Schoffer, Olaf
Kugler, Joachim
Riemenschneider, Henna
Kapellen, Thomas Michael
Kiess, Wieland
Rothe, Ulrike
Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany
title Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany
title_full Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany
title_fullStr Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany
title_full_unstemmed Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany
title_short Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany
title_sort trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the childhood diabetes registry of saxony, germany
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8719733/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34972197
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262171
work_keys_str_mv AT manuwaldulf trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany
AT schofferolaf trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany
AT kuglerjoachim trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany
AT riemenschneiderhenna trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany
AT kapellenthomasmichael trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany
AT kiesswieland trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany
AT rotheulrike trendsinincidenceandprevalenceoftype1diabetesbetween1999and2019basedonthechildhooddiabetesregistryofsaxonygermany