Comorbid insomnia among breast cancer survivors and its prediction using machine learning: a nationwide study in Japan

OBJECTIVE: Insomnia is an increasingly recognized major symptom of breast cancer which can seriously disrupt the quality of life during and many years after treatment. Sleep problems have also been linked with survival in women with breast cancer. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of insomnia in breast cancers survivors, clarify the clinical characteristics of their sleep difficulties and use machine learning techniques to explore clinical insights. METHODS: Our analysis of data, obtained in a nationwide questionnaire survey of breast cancer survivors in Japan, revealed a prevalence of suspected insomnia of 37.5%. With the clinical data obtained, we then used machine learning algorithms to develop a classifier that predicts comorbid insomnia. The performance of the prediction model was evaluated using 8-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: When using optimal hyperparameters, the L2 penalized logistic regression model and the XGBoost model provided predictive accuracy of 71.5 and 70.6% for the presence of suspected insomnia, with areas under the curve of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Population segments with high risk of insomnia were also extracted using the RuleFit algorithm. We found that cancer-related fatigue is a predictor of insomnia in breast cancer survivors. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of sleep problems and its link with mortality warrants routine screening. Our novel predictive model using a machine learning approach offers clinically important insights for the early detection of comorbid insomnia and intervention in breast cancer survivors.