Visual classification of three computed tomography lung patterns to predict prognosis of COVID-19: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative evaluation of radiographic images has been developed and suggested for the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, there are limited opportunities to use these image-based diagnostic indices in clinical practice. Our aim in this study was to evaluate the utility of a novel visually-based classification of pulmonary findings from computed tomography (CT) images of COVID-19 patients with the following three patterns defined: peripheral, multifocal, and diffuse findings of pneumonia. We also evaluated the prognostic value of this classification to predict the severity of COVID-19. METHODS: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between January 1st and September 30(th), 2020, who presented with suspicious findings on CT lung images at admission (n = 69). We compared the association between the three predefined patterns (peripheral, multifocal, and diffuse), admission to the intensive care unit, tracheal intubation, and death. We tested quantitative CT analysis as an outcome predictor for COVID-19. Quantitative CT analysis was performed using a semi-automated method (Thoracic Volume Computer-Assisted Reading software, GE Health care, United States). Lungs were divided by Hounsfield unit intervals. Compromised lung (%CL) volume was the sum of poorly and non-aerated volumes (− 500, 100 HU). We collected patient clinical data, including demographic and clinical variables at the time of admission. RESULTS: Patients with a diffuse pattern were intubated more frequently and for a longer duration than patients with a peripheral or multifocal pattern. The following clinical variables were significantly different between the diffuse pattern and peripheral and multifocal groups: body temperature (p = 0.04), lymphocyte count (p = 0.01), neutrophil count (p = 0.02), c-reactive protein (p < 0.01), lactate dehydrogenase (p < 0.01), Krebs von den Lungen-6 antigen (p < 0.01), D-dimer (p < 0.01), and steroid (p = 0.01) and favipiravir (p = 0.03) administration. CONCLUSIONS: Our simple visual assessment of CT images can predict the severity of illness, a resulting decrease in respiratory function, and the need for supplemental respiratory ventilation among patients with COVID-19.