“How Long Have I Got?” in Stage IV NSCLC Patients With at Least 3 Months Up to 10 Years Survival, Accuracy of Long-, Intermediate-, and Short-Term Survival Prediction Is Not Good Enough to Answer This Question

BACKGROUND: Most lung cancer patients worldwide [stage IV nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC)] have a poor survival: 25%–30% die <3 months. Yet, of those surviving >3 months, 10%–15% (70,000–105,000 new patients worldwide per year) survive (very) long. Surprisingly, little scientific attention has been paid to the question, which factors cause the good prognosis in these NSCLC stage IV long survivors. Therefore, “How long do I still have?” currently cannot be accurately answered. We evaluated in a large group of 737 stage IV NSCLC patients surviving 3.2–120.0 months, the accuracies of short- and long-term survival predictive values of baseline factors, radiotherapy (RT), platinum-based chemotherapy (PBT), and tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeted therapy (TKI-TT). METHODS: This is a noninterventional study of 998 consecutive first-onset stage IV NSCLC patients. A total of 737 (74%) survived 3.2–120.0 months, 47 refused RT, PBT, and TKI-TT. Single and multivariate survival analysis and receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis were used with dead of disease (DOD) or alive with disease (AWD) as endpoints. RESULTS: The median survival (16.1 months) of 47 patients who refused PBT, RT, and TKI-TT was significantly worse than those with RT, PBT, and/or TKI-TT (23.3 months, HR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.06–2.42, p = 0.04). Of these latter 690 patients, 42% were females, 58% males, median age 63 years (range 27–85), 1-, 2-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates were 74%, 49%, 16%, and 5%. In total, 16% were alive with disease (AWD) at the last follow-up. Pathology subtype (adenocarcinoma vs. all others), performance score, TNM substage, the number of PBT cycles and TKI-TT had independent predictive value. However, with the multivariate combination of these features, identification results of short-term nonsurvivors and long-term survivors were poor. CONCLUSIONS: In stage IV NSCLC patients with >3 months survival, baseline features, and systemic therapeutic modalities have strong survival predictive value but do not accurately identify short- and long-term survivors. The predictive value of other features and interventions discussed should be investigated in the worldwide very large group of stage IV NSCLC patients with >3 months survival.