Prognostic indicators associated with progresses of severe dengue

BACKGROUND: Dengue usually progress abnormally, especially in the critical phase. The main causes of death were shock, severe bleeding and organ failure. The aim of our study was to evaluate prognostic indicators of severe dengue according to the phases of the disease progression. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2017 at the National Hospital for Tropical Diseases and the Hospital for Tropical Diseases of Ho Chi Minh City. 326 patients, aged 6 years and over, including 99/326 patients with severe dengue and 227/326 patients with non-severe dengue, hospitalized in the first 3 days of illness, confirmed Dengue virus by the RT-PCR assay have been registered for the study. Clinical manifestations were monitored daily. The hematocrit, white blood cells, platelet, serum albumin, ALT, AST, bilirubin, prothrombin time (PT%, PTs), fibrinogen, aPTT, INR and creatinine were evaluated at two times: febrile phase and critical phase. RESULTS: Independent factors associated with severe dengue were identified on multivariate logistic regression models. During the first 3 days of the disease, the prognostic indicators were platelet count ≤ 100 G/L (OR = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.2–3.9), or serum albumin < 35 g/L (OR = 3.3; 95%CI: 1.8–6.1). From day 4–6, the indicator were AST > 400 U/L (OR = 3.0; 95%CI: 1.1–7.9), ALT > 400 U/L (OR = 6.6; 95%CI: 1.7–24.6), albumin < 35 g/L (OR = 3.0; 95%CI: 1.5–5.9), and bilirubin total >17 μmol/L (OR = 4.6; 95%CI: 2.0–10.4). CONCLUSION: To predict the risk of patients with severe dengue, prognostic laboratory indicators should be indicated consistent with the progression of the disease. During the first 3 days of illness, prognostic indicators should be platelet count, or serum albumin. From the 4th - 6th day of illness, prognostic indicators should be AST, ALT, albumin, or bilirubin total.