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Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

This study investigates the impact of the ageing population on the economic growth for short- and long-run estimations in Malaysia, by using time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with the Bound test approach for the long-run estimation...

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Autores principales: Mohd, Siti Nur Ain, Ishak, Ayunee Anis, Selvaratnam, Doris Padmini
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8740913/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35004564
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.731554
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author Mohd, Siti Nur Ain
Ishak, Ayunee Anis
Selvaratnam, Doris Padmini
author_facet Mohd, Siti Nur Ain
Ishak, Ayunee Anis
Selvaratnam, Doris Padmini
author_sort Mohd, Siti Nur Ain
collection PubMed
description This study investigates the impact of the ageing population on the economic growth for short- and long-run estimations in Malaysia, by using time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with the Bound test approach for the long-run estimation and the vector error correction model for the short-run estimation. Several econometric diagnostic tests were applied for validation and the appropriate model specification basis. The estimated result of this work indicates that the age dependency ratio proxy for the ageing population variable has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Malaysia. A 1% increase in old age dependency will decline gross domestic product's (GDP's) growth by an average of 6.6043% at the 5% level of significance. Hence, an increase in the ageing population will impede economic growth. Although controlled variables (e.g., physical capital, labour participation, and human capital) have a significant positive impact on economic growth in Malaysia, there is evidence of a long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and the ageing population variable, and also the control variable.
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spelling pubmed-87409132022-01-08 Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach Mohd, Siti Nur Ain Ishak, Ayunee Anis Selvaratnam, Doris Padmini Front Public Health Public Health This study investigates the impact of the ageing population on the economic growth for short- and long-run estimations in Malaysia, by using time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with the Bound test approach for the long-run estimation and the vector error correction model for the short-run estimation. Several econometric diagnostic tests were applied for validation and the appropriate model specification basis. The estimated result of this work indicates that the age dependency ratio proxy for the ageing population variable has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Malaysia. A 1% increase in old age dependency will decline gross domestic product's (GDP's) growth by an average of 6.6043% at the 5% level of significance. Hence, an increase in the ageing population will impede economic growth. Although controlled variables (e.g., physical capital, labour participation, and human capital) have a significant positive impact on economic growth in Malaysia, there is evidence of a long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and the ageing population variable, and also the control variable. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-11-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8740913/ /pubmed/35004564 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.731554 Text en Copyright © 2021 Mohd, Ishak and Selvaratnam. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Mohd, Siti Nur Ain
Ishak, Ayunee Anis
Selvaratnam, Doris Padmini
Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach
title Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach
title_full Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach
title_fullStr Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach
title_full_unstemmed Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach
title_short Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach
title_sort ageing population's impact on economic growth in malaysia from 1981 to 2019: evidence from an autoregressive distributed lag approach
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8740913/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35004564
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.731554
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AT selvaratnamdorispadmini ageingpopulationsimpactoneconomicgrowthinmalaysiafrom1981to2019evidencefromanautoregressivedistributedlagapproach