Explaining land use and forest change: more theory or better methodology?

CONTEXT: Theorizing complex phenomena like human–environment relationships is difficult and often of dubious explanatory value. If our goal is to understand causal interactions between people and the land and to explain environmental changes in the landscape, the more pressing need is for better causal–analytic methodology, not for more or better theory per se. OBJECTIVES: This paper presents a research methodology based on causal–historical analysis, called Abductive Causal Eventism (ACE), and makes the case that social scientists and environmental change researchers may benefit from adopting this instead of a theory-focused approach. METHODS: ACE is described and its application illustrated by recent research on land use change and reforestation in Saint Lucia, West Indies. Key findings are related to the literature on so-called forest transitions (FTs). RESULTS: Early writings about FTs sought to theorize the phenomenon, but studies have since revealed that FTs are the outcome of diverse causal pathways and contingent events. Likewise, Saint Lucia’s recent FT reflects a variety of causal influences interacting in complex ways, and FTs have occurred there before. CONCLUSIONS: These findings counsel against hasty theorizing and policy prescription and highlight the advantages of a methodological approach (ACE) that is adaptable to different and changing contexts and accounts for both general and contingent causes. Theories and policy that emerge from ACE research will be the richer (and wiser) for it.