Cargando…

Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study

PURPOSE: Our research aims to study the bone metastatic patterns and prognostic outcomes in elderly breast cancer (BC) and to develop elder-specific nomograms. METHODS: We downloaded the data of BC patients between 2010 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The diff...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Li, Gangfeng, Zhang, Dan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Dove 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8742678/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35018116
http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S343850
_version_ 1784629767670071296
author Li, Gangfeng
Zhang, Dan
author_facet Li, Gangfeng
Zhang, Dan
author_sort Li, Gangfeng
collection PubMed
description PURPOSE: Our research aims to study the bone metastatic patterns and prognostic outcomes in elderly breast cancer (BC) and to develop elder-specific nomograms. METHODS: We downloaded the data of BC patients between 2010 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The differences in clinical features and prognosis between young (age < 65) and elderly (age ≥ 65) BC patients were compared. The univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to determine the overall survival (OS)- and cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related variables and establish two nomograms of BC patients with bone metastasis (BCBM). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan–Meier survival curve were selected to evaluate nomograms. RESULTS: A total of 230,177 BC patients were enrolled in our research, including 142,025 young and 88,152 elderly patients. The prognosis of elderly BCBM patients was significantly worse than young patients. Age, race, breast subtype, tumor size, tumor grade, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic variables for elderly BCBM patients, including OS and CSS. The AUC values at 12, 18, and 24 months were 0.750, 0.751, and 0.739 for OS nomogram and 0.759, 0.762, and 0.752 for CSS nomogram in the training cohort, which were higher than the AUC values of all single independent prognostic variables. The survival curve showed a distinct prognosis between low-, median- and high-risk groups (p < 0.001). Finally, calibration curves and DCA indicated that both nomograms have favorable performance. CONCLUSION: Elderly and young patients presented with different bone metastatic frequencies, clinical features, and prognostic outcomes. Two elder-specific nomograms incorporating nine clinical variables were established and validated to be a valuable predictor for elderly BCBM patients.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8742678
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Dove
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-87426782022-01-10 Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study Li, Gangfeng Zhang, Dan Int J Gen Med Original Research PURPOSE: Our research aims to study the bone metastatic patterns and prognostic outcomes in elderly breast cancer (BC) and to develop elder-specific nomograms. METHODS: We downloaded the data of BC patients between 2010 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The differences in clinical features and prognosis between young (age < 65) and elderly (age ≥ 65) BC patients were compared. The univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to determine the overall survival (OS)- and cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related variables and establish two nomograms of BC patients with bone metastasis (BCBM). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan–Meier survival curve were selected to evaluate nomograms. RESULTS: A total of 230,177 BC patients were enrolled in our research, including 142,025 young and 88,152 elderly patients. The prognosis of elderly BCBM patients was significantly worse than young patients. Age, race, breast subtype, tumor size, tumor grade, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic variables for elderly BCBM patients, including OS and CSS. The AUC values at 12, 18, and 24 months were 0.750, 0.751, and 0.739 for OS nomogram and 0.759, 0.762, and 0.752 for CSS nomogram in the training cohort, which were higher than the AUC values of all single independent prognostic variables. The survival curve showed a distinct prognosis between low-, median- and high-risk groups (p < 0.001). Finally, calibration curves and DCA indicated that both nomograms have favorable performance. CONCLUSION: Elderly and young patients presented with different bone metastatic frequencies, clinical features, and prognostic outcomes. Two elder-specific nomograms incorporating nine clinical variables were established and validated to be a valuable predictor for elderly BCBM patients. Dove 2022-01-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8742678/ /pubmed/35018116 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S343850 Text en © 2022 Li and Zhang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) ). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms (https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php).
spellingShingle Original Research
Li, Gangfeng
Zhang, Dan
Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study
title Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study
title_full Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study
title_fullStr Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study
title_short Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Breast Cancer: A Large-Cohort Retrospective Study
title_sort development and validation of prognostic nomogram for elderly breast cancer: a large-cohort retrospective study
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8742678/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35018116
http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S343850
work_keys_str_mv AT ligangfeng developmentandvalidationofprognosticnomogramforelderlybreastcanceralargecohortretrospectivestudy
AT zhangdan developmentandvalidationofprognosticnomogramforelderlybreastcanceralargecohortretrospectivestudy