Cargando…

Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy. METHODS: We developed an approach to evaluate immine...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wells, Chad R., Pandey, Abhishek, Fitzpatrick, Meagan C., Crystal, William S., Singer, Burton H., Moghadas, Seyed M., Galvani, Alison P., Townsend, Jeffrey P.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8743228/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35036981
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304
_version_ 1784629863957659648
author Wells, Chad R.
Pandey, Abhishek
Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.
Crystal, William S.
Singer, Burton H.
Moghadas, Seyed M.
Galvani, Alison P.
Townsend, Jeffrey P.
author_facet Wells, Chad R.
Pandey, Abhishek
Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.
Crystal, William S.
Singer, Burton H.
Moghadas, Seyed M.
Galvani, Alison P.
Townsend, Jeffrey P.
author_sort Wells, Chad R.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy. METHODS: We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0–14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as “sufficient.” FINDINGS: We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases. INTERPRETATION: For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts. FUNDING: EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families’ endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8743228
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-87432282022-01-10 Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study Wells, Chad R. Pandey, Abhishek Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. Crystal, William S. Singer, Burton H. Moghadas, Seyed M. Galvani, Alison P. Townsend, Jeffrey P. Lancet Reg Health Eur Articles BACKGROUND: Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy. METHODS: We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0–14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as “sufficient.” FINDINGS: We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases. INTERPRETATION: For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts. FUNDING: EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families’ endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM). Elsevier 2022-01-10 /pmc/articles/PMC8743228/ /pubmed/35036981 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304 Text en © 2021 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Articles
Wells, Chad R.
Pandey, Abhishek
Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.
Crystal, William S.
Singer, Burton H.
Moghadas, Seyed M.
Galvani, Alison P.
Townsend, Jeffrey P.
Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
title Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
title_full Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
title_fullStr Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
title_short Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
title_sort quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the covid-19 pandemic: a modelling study
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8743228/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35036981
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304
work_keys_str_mv AT wellschadr quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT pandeyabhishek quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT fitzpatrickmeaganc quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT crystalwilliams quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT singerburtonh quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT moghadasseyedm quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT galvanialisonp quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy
AT townsendjeffreyp quarantineandtestingstrategiestoamelioratetransmissionduetotravelduringthecovid19pandemicamodellingstudy