Predictive model for recurrence of renal cell carcinoma by comparing pre‐ and postoperative urinary metabolite concentrations

To improve treatment outcomes in real practice, useful biomarkers are desired when predicting postoperative recurrence for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We collected data from patients who underwent definitive surgery for RCC and for benign urological tumor at our department between November 2016 and December 2019. We evaluated the differences in pre‐ and postoperative urinary metabolites with our precise quantitative method and identified predictive factors for RCC recurrence. Additionally, to clarify the significance of metabolites, we measured the intracellular metabolite concentration of three RCC cell lines. Among the 56 patients with RCC, nine had a recurrence (16.0%). When comparing 27 patients with T1a RCC and 10 with benign tumor, a significant difference was observed between pre‐ and postoperative concentrations among 10 urinary metabolites. In these 10 metabolites, multiple logistic regression analysis identified five metabolites (lactic acid, glycine, 2‐hydroxyglutarate, succinic acid, and kynurenic acid) as factors to build our recurrence prediction model. The values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity in this predictive model were 0.894%, 88.9%, and 88.0%, respectively. When stratified into low and high risk groups of recurrence based on this model, we found a significant drop of recurrence‐free survival rates among the high risk group. In in vitro studies, intracellular metabolite concentrations of metastatic tumor cell lines were much higher than those of primary tumor cell lines. By using our quantitative evaluation of urinary metabolites, we could predict postoperative recurrence with high sensitivity and specificity. Urinary metabolites could be noninvasive biomarkers to improve patient outcome.