Cargando…

Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States

This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression from cases to deaths as a function of time. Across multiple ap...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: James, Nick, Menzies, Max
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8749119/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35035778
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00430-y
_version_ 1784631158241230848
author James, Nick
Menzies, Max
author_facet James, Nick
Menzies, Max
author_sort James, Nick
collection PubMed
description This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression from cases to deaths as a function of time. Across multiple approaches, we reveal an “up-down-up” pattern in the estimated offset between reported cases and deaths as the pandemic progresses. This analysis could be used to predict imminent increased load on a healthcare system and aid the allocation of additional resources in advance.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8749119
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Springer Berlin Heidelberg
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-87491192022-01-11 Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States James, Nick Menzies, Max Eur Phys J Spec Top Regular Article This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression from cases to deaths as a function of time. Across multiple approaches, we reveal an “up-down-up” pattern in the estimated offset between reported cases and deaths as the pandemic progresses. This analysis could be used to predict imminent increased load on a healthcare system and aid the allocation of additional resources in advance. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-01-11 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8749119/ /pubmed/35035778 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00430-y Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Regular Article
James, Nick
Menzies, Max
Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
title Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
title_full Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
title_fullStr Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
title_full_unstemmed Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
title_short Estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to COVID-19 in the United States
title_sort estimating a continuously varying offset between multivariate time series with application to covid-19 in the united states
topic Regular Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8749119/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35035778
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00430-y
work_keys_str_mv AT jamesnick estimatingacontinuouslyvaryingoffsetbetweenmultivariatetimeserieswithapplicationtocovid19intheunitedstates
AT menziesmax estimatingacontinuouslyvaryingoffsetbetweenmultivariatetimeserieswithapplicationtocovid19intheunitedstates