Red Spot on the European Green Map: Will the Extra Catastrophic Phenomenon Take the Polish Poaching-Pressured Ospreys to the Brink of Extinction?

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Scientific research is an integral part of species protection. Thanks to the use of camera monitoring during a conservation project targeting a threatened Polish population of Osprey, we discovered that the influence of natural causes of brood losses is stronger than in previous years. This would be a kind of catastrophe for the species in the whole country. We conclude that only active protection and stopping the anthropogenic causes of Osprey mortality (e.g., poaching) could stop the decline in the population and give Poland a chance to not to be red spot on the European green map of Osprey. ABSTRACT: Poland is the only European country where the Osprey population is declining due to the mortality of adult birds from poaching, which impacts not only single breeding attempts but also the Lifetime Reproductive Success (LRS) of specimens. However, what if there came an extra mortality factor in the moment of the lowest numbers of Osprey, already vulnerable in the country? In the years 2018–2020, we installed 22 trail cameras and five digital cameras (live online video feeds) on the nests. The total failure level observed in cameras (18.5%) was high. We observed, using these cameras, the extra mortality of chicks (10.7% of potentially fledged chicks) and even adult birds by unexpected predation by Northern Goshawk and White-tailed Eagle. This phenomenon is also common in the national population, as we found a total of ten cases of total losses by predators (eight or nine of them were birds of prey), including nests not covered by camera monitoring. The extra adult-predation by Goshawks means an extra drop in LRS. Those adult and chick predations are an example of exceptional catastrophic phenomena, which have been described as the direct cause of the extinction of animal populations throughout history. Only active conservation and stop poaching of the Polish population could stop the decline and save the Polish Ospreys.