An Opportunistic Assessment of the Impact of Squirrelpox Disease Outbreaks upon a Red Squirrel Population Sympatric with Grey Squirrels in Wales

SIMPLE SUMMARY: In Europe, squirrelpox virus is carried by non-native grey squirrels and spread into native red squirrel populations. The virus causes a large proportion of infected red squirrels to die and contributes to local declines and the replacement by grey squirrels. There are relatively few published studies quantifying the impact of disease amongst red squirrels. We present findings from a short-term study in north Wales, United Kingdom. ABSTRACT: Native red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) persisted in the coastal mainland woodlands of northern Gwynedd whilst sympatric with an invasive grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) population suppressed by culling. Squirrelpox disease in the red squirrel population was recorded in 2017 and 2020/21. An autumn 2020 outbreak was associated with only 17.4% of animals caught and marked in the preceding June known to be present in March 2021. Despite an opportunistic data collection lacking the rigour of empirical experimental design, we observed low local survival rates similar to previously published accounts reported during major squirrelpox outbreaks. The use of a conservation dog to detect red squirrel carcasses resulted in positive detection and confirmation of a temporal and spatial expansion of one disease outbreak. The study is the first in Wales to use conservation dogs and the findings reinforce the vital strategic importance of geographical isolation reducing sympatry of red with grey squirrels in European regions where the introduced congener is a source of the squirrelpox infection.