Delta-Radiomics Predicts Response to First-Line Oxaliplatin-Based Chemotherapy in Colorectal Cancer Patients with Liver Metastases

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy remains the mainstay of first-line therapy in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Unfortunately, only approximately 60% of treated patients achieve response, and half of responders will experience an early onset of disease progression. Furthermore, some individuals will develop a mixed response due to the emergence of resistant tumor subclones. The ability to predicting which patients will acquire resistance could help them avoid the unnecessary toxicity of oxaliplatin therapies. Furthermore, sorting out lesions that do not respond, in the context of an overall good response, could trigger further investigation into their mutational landscape, providing mechanistic insight towards the planning of a more comprehensive treatment. In this study, we validated a delta-radiomics signature capable of predicting response to oxaliplatin-based first-line treatment of individual liver colorectal cancer metastases. Findings could pave the way to a more personalized treatment of patients with mCRC. ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to develop and validate a delta-radiomics score to predict the response of individual colorectal cancer liver metastases (lmCRC) to first-line FOLFOX chemotherapy. Three hundred one lmCRC were manually segmented on both CT performed at baseline and after the first cycle of first-line FOLFOX, and 107 radiomics features were computed by subtracting textural features of CT at baseline from those at timepoint 1 (TP1). LmCRC were classified as nonresponders (R−) if they showed progression of disease (PD), according to RECIST1.1, before 8 months, and as responders (R+), otherwise. After feature selection, we developed a decision tree statistical model trained using all lmCRC coming from one hospital. The final output was a delta-radiomics signature subsequently validated on an external dataset. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV), and negative (NPV) predictive values in correctly classifying individual lesions were assessed on both datasets. Per-lesion sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 99%, 94%, 95%, 99%, 85%, 92%, 90%, and 87%, respectively, in the training and validation datasets. The delta-radiomics signature was able to reliably predict R− lmCRC, which were wrongly classified by lesion RECIST as R+ at TP1, (93%, averaging training and validation set, versus 67% of RECIST). The delta-radiomics signature developed in this study can reliably predict the response of individual lmCRC to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. Lesions forecasted as poor or nonresponders by the signature could be further investigated, potentially paving the way to lesion-specific therapies.