Which chart and which cut-point: deciding on the INTERGROWTH, World Health Organization, or Hadlock fetal growth chart

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: To determine how various centile cut points on the INTERGROWTH-21st (INTERGROWTH), World Health Organization (WHO), and Hadlock fetal growth charts predict perinatal morbidity/mortality, and how this relates to choosing a fetal growth chart for clinical use. METHODS: We linked antenatal ultrasound measurements for fetuses > 28 weeks’ gestation from the British Columbia Women’s hospital ultrasound unit with the provincial perinatal database. We estimated the risk of perinatal morbidity/mortality (decreased cord pH, neonatal seizures, hypoglycemia, and perinatal death) associated with select centiles on each fetal growth chart (the 3rd, 10th, the centile identifying 10% of the population, and the optimal cut-point by Youden’s Index), and determined how well each centile predicted perinatal morbidity/mortality. RESULTS: Among 10,366 pregnancies, the 10th centile cut-point had a sensitivity of 11% (95% CI 8, 14), 13% (95% CI 10, 16), and 12% (95% CI 10, 16), to detect fetuses with perinatal morbidity/mortality on the INTERGROWTH, WHO, and Hadlock charts, respectively. All charts performed similarly in predicting perinatal morbidity/mortality (area under the curve [AUC] =0.54 for all three charts). The statistically optimal cut-points were the 39th, 31st, and 32nd centiles on the INTERGROWTH, WHO, and Hadlock charts respectively. CONCLUSION: The INTERGROWTH, WHO, and Hadlock fetal growth charts performed similarly in predicting perinatal morbidity/mortality, even when evaluating multiple cut points. Deciding which cut-point and chart to use may be guided by other considerations such as impact on workflow and how the chart was derived. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-021-04324-0.