Positron Emission Tomography–Derived Metrics Predict the Probability of Local Relapse After Oligometastasis-Directed Ablative Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE: Early positron emission tomography–derived metrics post–oligometastasis radioablation may predict impending local relapses (LRs), providing a basis for a timely ablation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Positron emission tomography data of 623 lesions treated with either 24 Gy single-dose radiation therapy (SDRT) (n = 475) or 3 × 9 Gy stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) (n = 148) were analyzed in a training data set (n = 246) to obtain optimal cutoffs for pretreatment maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)) and its 3-month posttreatment decline (ΔSUV(max)) in predicting LR risk, validated in a data set unseen to testing (n = 377). RESULTS: At a median of 21.7 months, 91 lesions developed LRs: 39 of 475 (8.2%) after SDRT and 52 of 148 (35.1%) after SBRT. The optimal cutoff values were 12 for SUV(max) and –75% for ΔSUV(max). Bivariate SUV(max)/ΔSUV(max) permutations rendered a 3-tiered LR risk stratification of dual-favorable (low risk), 1 adverse (intermediate risk) and dual-adverse (high risk). Actuarial 5-year local relapse-free survival rates were 93.9% versus 89.6% versus 57.1% (P < .0001) and 76.1% versus 48.3% versus 8.2% (P < .0001) for SDRT and SBRT, respectively. The SBRT area under the ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.61-0.79) and the high-risk subgroup yielded a 76.5% true positive LR prediction rate. CONCLUSIONS: The SBRT dual-adverse SUV(max)/ΔSUV(max) category LR prediction power provides a basis for prospective studies testing whether a timely ablation of impending LRs affects oligometastasis outcomes.