Utilizing the MEST score for prognostic staging in IgA nephropathy

BACKGROUND: The Oxford classification/MEST score is an established histopathologic scoring system for patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). The objective of this study was to derive a prognostic model for IgAN based on the MEST score and histopathologic features. METHODS: A total of 306 patients with biopsy-proven primary IgAN were included. Histopathologic samples were retrieved from the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry and reclassified according to the Oxford classification. The study endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Patients were subclassified into three risk models based on histologic features (Model A), a composite score calculated from the adjusted hazard ratio values (Model B), and on quartiles (Model C). RESULTS: The mean follow-up time was 16.5 years (range 0.2–28.1). In total, 61 (20%) patients reached ESRD during the study period. Univariate analysis of M, E, S, T and C lesions demonstrated that all types were associated with an increased risk of ESRD; however, a multivariate analysis revealed that only S, T and C lesions were associated with poor outcomes. Statistical analysis of 15-year data demonstrated that Models A and B were as predictive as the MEST score, with an area-under-the-curve at 0.85. The Harrel c index values were 0.81 and 0.80 for the MEST score and Models A and B, respectively. In the present cohort, adding C lesions to the MEST score did not improve the models prognostic value. CONCLUSIONS: Patients can be divided into risk classes based on their MEST scores. Histopathologic data provide valuable prognostic information at the time of diagnosis. Model B was the most suitable for clinical practice because it was the most user-friendly. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-021-02653-y.