Mapping of global, regional and national incidence, mortality and mortality-to-incidence ratio of lung cancer in 2020 and 2050

AIM: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. This study examines the current and future burden of lung cancer at global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: The estimates of lung cancer incident cases, deaths, and their age-standardized rates are drawn from GLOBOCAN 2020 for 21 regions and 185 countries. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) is considered as a proxy indicator of 5-year survival rates. Lung cancer burden in 2050 is projected using age-specific incidence and death rates in 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, there were 2.21 million new cases and 1.8 million deaths due to lung cancer worldwide with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 22.4/100,000 (male: 31.5; female: 14.6) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of 18.0/100,000, (male: 25.9; female: 11.2/100,000). Global MIR of lung cancer was 0.82 (males 0.83; females: 0.79), varying from 0.59 (Japan) to 1.0 (Belize). Hungary had the highest age-standardized rates (ASIR: 50.1/100,000; ASMR: 42.4/100,000) and Nigeria (ASIR: 0.88; ASMR: 0.86) had the lowest age-standardized rates in 2020. Both ASIR and ASMR were positively correlated with country-level tobacco smoking prevalence and human development index (HDI), whereas MIR exhibited a negative correlation with HDI. As per our projections, there will be 3.8 million incident cases and 3.2 million deaths globally due to lung cancer in 2050. CONCLUSION: With close to 2 million cases and deaths already in 2020, lung cancer has already become a global public health threat. Even with current risk levels and age-specific rates, lung cancer annual cases are expected to reach 3.8 million in 2050. Until smoking prevalence is reduced and ambient air pollution levels are checked, particularly in low/medium HDI countries, the lung cancer epidemic will continue unfolding. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10147-021-02108-2.