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Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities

BACKGROUND: The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear. METHODS: We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan stat...

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Autores principales: Fojo, Anthony, Wallengren, Emma, Schnure, Melissa, Dowdy, David W, Shah, Maunank, Kasaie, Parastu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8755375/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35016216
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab1029
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author Fojo, Anthony
Wallengren, Emma
Schnure, Melissa
Dowdy, David W
Shah, Maunank
Kasaie, Parastu
author_facet Fojo, Anthony
Wallengren, Emma
Schnure, Melissa
Dowdy, David W
Shah, Maunank
Kasaie, Parastu
author_sort Fojo, Anthony
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear. METHODS: We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0–50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0–40% reduction), HIV testing (0–50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0–30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports. RESULTS: Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among “optimistic” simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among “pessimistic” simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1–21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020–2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.
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spelling pubmed-87553752022-01-13 Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities Fojo, Anthony Wallengren, Emma Schnure, Melissa Dowdy, David W Shah, Maunank Kasaie, Parastu Clin Infect Dis Major Article BACKGROUND: The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear. METHODS: We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0–50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0–40% reduction), HIV testing (0–50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0–30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports. RESULTS: Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among “optimistic” simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among “pessimistic” simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1–21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020–2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission. Oxford University Press 2022-01-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8755375/ /pubmed/35016216 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab1029 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_modelThis article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)
spellingShingle Major Article
Fojo, Anthony
Wallengren, Emma
Schnure, Melissa
Dowdy, David W
Shah, Maunank
Kasaie, Parastu
Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
title Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
title_full Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
title_fullStr Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
title_full_unstemmed Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
title_short Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
title_sort potential effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic on human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) transmission: a modeling study in 32 us cities
topic Major Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8755375/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35016216
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab1029
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