Associations between combinations of job demands and job control among 6,16,818 people aged 55–64 in paid work with their labour market status 11 years later: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Given current discussions about extending working lives, more knowledge is needed on working conditions associated with labour market status in older age. OBJECTIVE: To explore associations between combinations of job demands and job control among workers aged 55–64 years and their labour market status 11 years later. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study using nationwide register data. The 616,818 individuals in Sweden aged 55–64 who in 2001 were in paid work were categorised using a job exposure matrix based on tertiles (reference = medium control/medium demands). Participants were followed up in 2012 regarding their main labour market status (paid work, old-age pension, no income/social assistance, sickness absence/disability pension, emigrated, dead; reference = old-age pension) using multinomial logistic regression for odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The fully adjusted analyses included adjustment for sociodemographic factors and unemployment or sickness absence/disability pension for more than half the year in 2001. RESULTS: Those in occupations with low job control at baseline were less likely to be in paid work at follow-up (OR low demands/low control 0.74, CI 0.71–0.78; high demands/low control 0.81, CI 0.75–0.87). Those in occupations with baseline high demands were less likely to have no income/social assistance at follow-up (OR high demands/low control 0.71, CI 0.52–0.96; high demands/high control 0.59, CI 0.47–0.75). CONCLUSION: Job demands and control when aged 55–64 were associated with labour market status 11 years later: high control was associated with greater chance of being in paid work, and high demands were associated with lower risk of no income/social assistance. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00420-021-01717-8.