Prediction and Validation of a Protein’s Free Energy Surface Using Hydrogen Exchange and (Importantly) Its Denaturant Dependence

[Image: see text] The denaturant dependence of hydrogen–deuterium exchange (HDX) is a powerful measurement to identify the breaking of individual H-bonds and map the free energy surface (FES) of a protein including the very rare states. Molecular dynamics (MD) can identify each partial unfolding event with atomic-level resolution. Hence, their combination provides a great opportunity to test the accuracy of simulations and to verify the interpretation of HDX data. For this comparison, we use Upside, our new and extremely fast MD package that is capable of folding proteins with an accuracy comparable to that of all-atom methods. The FESs of two naturally occurring and two designed proteins are so generated and compared to our NMR/HDX data. We find that Upside’s accuracy is considerably improved upon modifying the energy function using a new machine-learning procedure that trains for proper protein behavior including realistic denatured states in addition to stable native states. The resulting increase in cooperativity is critical for replicating the HDX data and protein stability, indicating that we have properly encoded the underlying physiochemical interactions into an MD package. We did observe some mismatch, however, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by simulations in calculating accurate FESs. Nevertheless, our ensembles can identify the properties of the fluctuations that lead to HDX, whether they be small-, medium-, or large-scale openings, and can speak to the breadth of the native ensemble that has been a matter of debate.