Sample attrition analysis in a prospective cohort study of medical graduates in China

BACKGROUND: A major challenge of prospective cohort studies is attrition in follow-up surveys. This study investigated attrition in a prospective cohort comprised of medical graduates in China. We described status of attrition, identified participants with higher possibility of attrition, and examined if attrition affect the estimation of the key outcome measures. METHODS: The cohort study recruited 3,620 new medical graduates from four medical universities in central and western China between 2015 and 2019. Online follow-up surveys were conducted on an annual basis. Follow-up status was defined as complete (meaning that the participant completed all the follow-up surveys) and incomplete, while incomplete follow-up was further divided into ‘always-out’, ‘rejoin’ and ‘other’. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were used to examine factors predicting attrition and the influence on the outcome measures of career development. RESULTS: 2364 (65.3%) participants completed all follow-up surveys. For those with incomplete follow-up, 520 (14.4%) were ‘always-out’, 276 (7.6%) rejoined in the 2020 survey. Willingness to participate in residency training (OR=0.80, 95%CI[0.66 - 0.98]) and willingness to provide sensitive information in the baseline survey predicted a lower rate of attrition (providing scores for university entrance exam OR=0.82, 95%CI[0.69 - 0.97]]; providing contact information (OR=0.46, 95%CI[0.32 - 0.66]); providing household income (OR=0.60, 95%CI[0.43 - 0.84]). Participants with compulsory rural service (OR=1.52, 95%CI[1.05 - 2.19]) and those providing university entrance scores (OR=1.64, 95%CI[1.15-2.33)) were more likely to rejoin in the follow-up survey. These factors associated with follow-up status did not have significant impact on key outcome measures of career development. CONCLUSIONS: Graduates who were unwilling to participate in residency training or not providing sensitive information should be targeted early in the cohort study to reduce attrition. More information about the study should be provided to those graduates early to facilitate their understanding of the meaning in participation. On the contrary, medical graduates with compulsory rural service and those who provided university entrance scores were more likely to rejoin in the cohort. The research team should invest more effort in contacting those graduates and returned them to the cohort. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01498-1.