Thirty years of hip fracture incidence in Austria: is the worst over?

SUMMARY: Nationwide hip fracture incidence in the Austrian population was assessed over a period of 30 years (1989–2018), including 20 years data from a previous study and a recent 10 years follow-up. While absolute numbers in men continued to increase, absolute numbers in women and age-standardized incidences in both men and women decreased. PURPOSE: In the Austrian population ≥ 50 years, nationwide hip fracture incidences over a period of 20 years (1989–2008) have shown an initial steep increase, followed by a leveling-off during the last few years of observation. The purpose of the present study was to follow up on hip fracture incidences for another 10 years (2009–2018) and to analyze trends over the entire period of 30 years. METHODS: ICD-10 code classes S72.0, S72.1, and S72.2 were applied. All data were retrieved from the Statistics Austria database and its hospital discharge register. Annual absolute numbers, crude and age-standardized incidences, and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were stratified by sex and 5-year age intervals, and calculated by using a correction factor for multiple registrations. RESULTS: Total number of hip fracture cases increased from 13,984 (2009) to 14,640 (2015), and decreased thereafter to 14,457 (2018), despite a persistent increase in men. Age-standardized incidences peaked at 476/100,000 (2010), followed by a decrease to 408/100,000 (2018). The observed overall decrease was mainly driven by the female population. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) yielded a statistically significant average annual decrease of age-standardized incidences in both women and men (∆IRR 0.984; 0.981–0.987). CONCLUSION: While absolute numbers of hip fracture in women showed a slight decrease during the last 10 years of observation, numbers in men continued to increase. Age-standardized incidences nevertheless decreased in both men and women, which may be interpreted as a trend in the right direction. However, due to the rapid aging of the population, it cannot be precluded that this trend will be compromised during the next few decades. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00198-021-06086-z.