Different impacts of metabolic profiles on future risk of cardiovascular disease between diabetes with and without established cardiovascular disease: the Japan diabetes complication and its prevention prospective study 7 (JDCP study 7)

AIMS: Most risk calculators that predict future cardiovascular disease (CVD) by baseline profiles are originally developed for primary prevention, but some studies applied the calculators to secondary prevention. We compared the impact of baseline profiles on the future CVD risk between patients with diabetes with and without a CVD history. METHODS: We analyzed a multicenter prospective cohort of 6338 Japanese patients with diabetes aged 40–74 years, including those with (n = 634) and without a CVD history (n = 5704). The future risk of CVD was investigated using the competing risk model, with adjustment for non-cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 6.9 years, 413 CVD events were observed. The 8-year cumulative incidence rates of CVD were 21.5% and 7.2% in patients with and without a CVD history, respectively. A higher systolic blood pressure and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were independently associated with a future CVD risk in patients without a CVD history (both P < 0.05), whereas they were not associated in those with a CVD history. The P values for interaction were 0.040 and 0.005, respectively. The male sex, an older age, a longer duration of diabetes, higher hemoglobin A1c levels, and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were common independent risk factors regardless of CVD history (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic impact of metabolic profiles on CVD risk would not be identical between patients with and without a CVD history, suggesting that it might be inappropriate to apply CVD risk calculators developed for primary prevention to patients with a CVD history. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00592-021-01773-z.