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Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy
The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex and multivariate process differentiated across countries, and geographical distance is acceptable as a critical determinant of the uneven spreading. Although social connectivity is a defining condition for virus transmission, the network par...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8758726/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35027646 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04717-3 |
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author | Tsiotas, Dimitrios Tselios, Vassilis |
author_facet | Tsiotas, Dimitrios Tselios, Vassilis |
author_sort | Tsiotas, Dimitrios |
collection | PubMed |
description | The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex and multivariate process differentiated across countries, and geographical distance is acceptable as a critical determinant of the uneven spreading. Although social connectivity is a defining condition for virus transmission, the network paradigm in the study of the COVID-19 spatio-temporal spread has not been used accordingly. Toward contributing to this demand, this paper uses network analysis to develop a multidimensional methodological framework for understanding the uneven (cross-country) spread of COVID-19 in the context of the globally interconnected economy. The globally interconnected system of tourism mobility is modeled as a complex network and studied within the context of a three-dimensional (3D) conceptual model composed of network connectivity, economic openness, and spatial impedance variables. The analysis reveals two main stages in the temporal spread of COVID-19, defined by the cutting-point of the 44th day from Wuhan. The first describes the outbreak in Asia and North America, the second stage in Europe, South America, and Africa, while the outbreak in Oceania intermediates. The analysis also illustrates that the average node degree exponentially decays as a function of COVID-19 emergence time. This finding implies that the highly connected nodes, in the Global Tourism Network (GTN), are disproportionally earlier infected by the pandemic than the other nodes. Moreover, countries with the same network centrality as China are early infected on average by COVID-19. The paper also finds that network interconnectedness, economic openness, and transport integration are critical determinants in the early global spread of the pandemic, and it reveals that the spatio-temporal patterns of the worldwide spreading of COVID-19 are more a matter of network interconnectivity than of spatial proximity. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8758726 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87587262022-01-14 Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy Tsiotas, Dimitrios Tselios, Vassilis Sci Rep Article The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex and multivariate process differentiated across countries, and geographical distance is acceptable as a critical determinant of the uneven spreading. Although social connectivity is a defining condition for virus transmission, the network paradigm in the study of the COVID-19 spatio-temporal spread has not been used accordingly. Toward contributing to this demand, this paper uses network analysis to develop a multidimensional methodological framework for understanding the uneven (cross-country) spread of COVID-19 in the context of the globally interconnected economy. The globally interconnected system of tourism mobility is modeled as a complex network and studied within the context of a three-dimensional (3D) conceptual model composed of network connectivity, economic openness, and spatial impedance variables. The analysis reveals two main stages in the temporal spread of COVID-19, defined by the cutting-point of the 44th day from Wuhan. The first describes the outbreak in Asia and North America, the second stage in Europe, South America, and Africa, while the outbreak in Oceania intermediates. The analysis also illustrates that the average node degree exponentially decays as a function of COVID-19 emergence time. This finding implies that the highly connected nodes, in the Global Tourism Network (GTN), are disproportionally earlier infected by the pandemic than the other nodes. Moreover, countries with the same network centrality as China are early infected on average by COVID-19. The paper also finds that network interconnectedness, economic openness, and transport integration are critical determinants in the early global spread of the pandemic, and it reveals that the spatio-temporal patterns of the worldwide spreading of COVID-19 are more a matter of network interconnectivity than of spatial proximity. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-01-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8758726/ /pubmed/35027646 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04717-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Tsiotas, Dimitrios Tselios, Vassilis Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
title | Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
title_full | Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
title_fullStr | Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
title_short | Understanding the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
title_sort | understanding the uneven spread of covid-19 in the context of the global interconnected economy |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8758726/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35027646 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04717-3 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT tsiotasdimitrios understandingtheunevenspreadofcovid19inthecontextoftheglobalinterconnectedeconomy AT tseliosvassilis understandingtheunevenspreadofcovid19inthecontextoftheglobalinterconnectedeconomy |