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A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics?
We analyze conflict between a citizenry and an insurgent group over a fixed resource such as land. The citizenry has an elected leader who proposes a division such that, the lower the land ceded to the insurgents, the higher the cost of conflict. Leaders differ in ability and ideology such that the...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8759682/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35030207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261646 |
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author | Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, Amit K. Oak, Mandar |
author_facet | Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, Amit K. Oak, Mandar |
author_sort | Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha |
collection | PubMed |
description | We analyze conflict between a citizenry and an insurgent group over a fixed resource such as land. The citizenry has an elected leader who proposes a division such that, the lower the land ceded to the insurgents, the higher the cost of conflict. Leaders differ in ability and ideology such that the higher the leader’s ability, the lower the cost of conflict, and the more hawkish the leader, the higher his utility from retaining land. We show that the conflict arises from the political process with re-election motives causing leaders to choose to cede too little land to signal their ability. We also show that when the rents of office are high, the political equilibrium and the second best diverge; in particular, the policy under the political equilibrium is more hawkish compared to the second best. When both ideology and ability are unknown, we provide a plausible condition under which the probability of re-election increases in the leader’s hawkishness, thereby providing an explanation for why hawkish politicians may have a natural advantage under the electoral process. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8759682 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87596822022-01-15 A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, Amit K. Oak, Mandar PLoS One Research Article We analyze conflict between a citizenry and an insurgent group over a fixed resource such as land. The citizenry has an elected leader who proposes a division such that, the lower the land ceded to the insurgents, the higher the cost of conflict. Leaders differ in ability and ideology such that the higher the leader’s ability, the lower the cost of conflict, and the more hawkish the leader, the higher his utility from retaining land. We show that the conflict arises from the political process with re-election motives causing leaders to choose to cede too little land to signal their ability. We also show that when the rents of office are high, the political equilibrium and the second best diverge; in particular, the policy under the political equilibrium is more hawkish compared to the second best. When both ideology and ability are unknown, we provide a plausible condition under which the probability of re-election increases in the leader’s hawkishness, thereby providing an explanation for why hawkish politicians may have a natural advantage under the electoral process. Public Library of Science 2022-01-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8759682/ /pubmed/35030207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261646 Text en © 2022 Bandyopadhyay et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, Amit K. Oak, Mandar A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
title | A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
title_full | A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
title_fullStr | A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
title_full_unstemmed | A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
title_short | A model of conflict and leadership: Is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
title_sort | model of conflict and leadership: is there a hawkish drift in politics? |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8759682/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35030207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261646 |
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