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Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China
In this paper, we propose a new SAIR model to depict the transmission dynamics of a novel coronavirus in China. We focus on the ability of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients to transmit and the potential impact of population movements on renewed outbreak transmission. Qualitative analysis of the model s...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8760652/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35070651 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105195 |
_version_ | 1784633367345496064 |
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author | Kang, Xiaxia Hu, Ye Liu, Zeyu Sarwar, Shahzad |
author_facet | Kang, Xiaxia Hu, Ye Liu, Zeyu Sarwar, Shahzad |
author_sort | Kang, Xiaxia |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this paper, we propose a new SAIR model to depict the transmission dynamics of a novel coronavirus in China. We focus on the ability of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients to transmit and the potential impact of population movements on renewed outbreak transmission. Qualitative analysis of the model shows that when the basic productive number [Formula: see text] , the system will stabilize towards a unique endemic equilibrium and pass through a transcritical bifurcation around its disease-free equilibrium. Furthermore, by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable under appropriate parameter conditions. Finally, some important results have been verified by numerical simulations. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8760652 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87606522022-01-18 Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China Kang, Xiaxia Hu, Ye Liu, Zeyu Sarwar, Shahzad Results Phys Article In this paper, we propose a new SAIR model to depict the transmission dynamics of a novel coronavirus in China. We focus on the ability of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients to transmit and the potential impact of population movements on renewed outbreak transmission. Qualitative analysis of the model shows that when the basic productive number [Formula: see text] , the system will stabilize towards a unique endemic equilibrium and pass through a transcritical bifurcation around its disease-free equilibrium. Furthermore, by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable under appropriate parameter conditions. Finally, some important results have been verified by numerical simulations. The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2022-03 2022-01-15 /pmc/articles/PMC8760652/ /pubmed/35070651 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105195 Text en © 2022 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Kang, Xiaxia Hu, Ye Liu, Zeyu Sarwar, Shahzad Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China |
title | Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China |
title_full | Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China |
title_fullStr | Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China |
title_short | Forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients spreading in China |
title_sort | forecast and evaluation of asymptomatic covid-19 patients spreading in china |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8760652/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35070651 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105195 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kangxiaxia forecastandevaluationofasymptomaticcovid19patientsspreadinginchina AT huye forecastandevaluationofasymptomaticcovid19patientsspreadinginchina AT liuzeyu forecastandevaluationofasymptomaticcovid19patientsspreadinginchina AT sarwarshahzad forecastandevaluationofasymptomaticcovid19patientsspreadinginchina |