Early radiological worsening of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia predicts the need for ventilatory support

OBJECTIVES: Identifying early markers of poor prognosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is mandatory. Our purpose is to analyze by chest radiography if rapid worsening of COVID-19 pneumonia in the initial days has predictive value for ventilatory support (VS) need. METHODS: Ambispective observational ethically approved study in COVID-19 pneumonia inpatients, validated in a second outpatient sample. Brixia score (BS) was applied to the first and second chest radiography required for suspected COVID-19 pneumonia to determine the predictive capacity of BS worsening for VS need. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was previously analyzed among three radiologists. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, AUC, and odds ratio were calculated using ROC curves and binary logistic regression analysis. A value of p < .05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 120 inpatients (55 ± 14 years, 68 men) and 112 outpatients (56 ± 13 years, 61 men) were recruited. The average ICC of the BS was between 0.812 (95% confidence interval 0.745–0.878) and 0.906 (95% confidence interval 0.844–0.940). According to the multivariate analysis, a BS worsening per day > 1.3 points within 10 days of the onset of symptoms doubles the risk for requiring VS in inpatients and 5 times in outpatients (p < .001). The findings from the second chest radiography were always better predictors of VS requirement than those from the first one. CONCLUSION: The early radiological worsening of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia after symptoms onset is a determining factor of the final prognosis. In elderly patients with some comorbidity and pneumonia, a 48–72-h follow-up radiograph is recommended. KEY POINTS: • An early worsening on chest X-ray in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is highly predictive of the need for ventilatory support. • This radiological worsening rate can be easily assessed by comparing the first and the second chest X-ray. • In elderly patients with some comorbidity and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, close early radiological follow-up is recommended. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-021-08418-3.