Left ventricular mass regression, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in chronic kidney disease: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is an important driver of the increased mortality associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Higher left ventricular mass (LVM) predicts increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and total mortality, but previous reviews have shown no clear association between intervention-induced LVM change and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality in CKD. METHODS: The primary objective of this meta-analysis was to investigate whether treatment-induced reductions in LVM over periods ≥12 months were associated with all-cause mortality in patients with CKD. Cardiovascular mortality was investigated as a secondary outcome. Measures of association in the form of relative risks (RRs) with associated variability and precision (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were extracted directly from each study, when reported, or were calculated based on the published data, if possible, and pooled RR estimates were determined. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 42 trials with duration ≥12 months: 6 of erythropoietin stimulating agents treating to higher vs. lower hemoglobin targets, 10 of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors vs. placebo or another blood pressure lowering agent, 14 of modified hemodialysis regimens, and 12 of other types of interventions. All-cause mortality was reported in 121/2584 (4.86%) subjects in intervention groups and 168/2606 (6.45%) subjects in control groups. The pooled RR estimate of the 27 trials ≥12 months with ≥1 event in ≥1 group was 0.72 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.90, p = 0.005), with little heterogeneity across studies. Directionalities of the associations in intervention subgroups were the same. Sensitivity analyses of ≥6 months (34 trials), ≥9 months (29 trials), and >12 months (10 trials), and including studies with no events in either group, demonstrated similar risk reductions to the primary analysis. The point estimate for cardiovascular mortality was similar to all-cause mortality, but not statistically significant: RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.16. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that LVM regression may be a useful surrogate marker for benefits of interventions intended to reduce mortality risk in patients with CKD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-022-02666-1.