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Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction
Schurz (2019, ch. 4) argues that probabilistic accounts of induction fail. In particular, he criticises probabilistic accounts of induction that appeal to direct inference principles, including subjective Bayesian approaches (e.g., Howson 2000) and objective Bayesian approaches (see, e.g., Williamso...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Netherlands
2022
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8761537/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35068694 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10838-021-09584-0 |
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author | Williamson, Jon |
author_facet | Williamson, Jon |
author_sort | Williamson, Jon |
collection | PubMed |
description | Schurz (2019, ch. 4) argues that probabilistic accounts of induction fail. In particular, he criticises probabilistic accounts of induction that appeal to direct inference principles, including subjective Bayesian approaches (e.g., Howson 2000) and objective Bayesian approaches (see, e.g., Williamson 2017). In this paper, I argue that Schurz’ preferred direct inference principle, namely Reichenbach’s Principle of the Narrowest Reference Class, faces formidable problems in a standard probabilistic setting. Furthermore, the main alternative direct inference principle, Lewis’ Principal Principle, is also hard to reconcile with standard probabilism. So, I argue, standard probabilistic approaches cannot appeal to direct inference to explicate the logic of induction. However, I go on to defend a non-standard objective Bayesian account of induction: I argue that this approach can both accommodate direct inference and provide a viable account of the logic of induction. I then defend this account against Schurz’ criticisms. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8761537 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-87615372022-01-18 Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction Williamson, Jon J Gen Philos Sci Article Schurz (2019, ch. 4) argues that probabilistic accounts of induction fail. In particular, he criticises probabilistic accounts of induction that appeal to direct inference principles, including subjective Bayesian approaches (e.g., Howson 2000) and objective Bayesian approaches (see, e.g., Williamson 2017). In this paper, I argue that Schurz’ preferred direct inference principle, namely Reichenbach’s Principle of the Narrowest Reference Class, faces formidable problems in a standard probabilistic setting. Furthermore, the main alternative direct inference principle, Lewis’ Principal Principle, is also hard to reconcile with standard probabilism. So, I argue, standard probabilistic approaches cannot appeal to direct inference to explicate the logic of induction. However, I go on to defend a non-standard objective Bayesian account of induction: I argue that this approach can both accommodate direct inference and provide a viable account of the logic of induction. I then defend this account against Schurz’ criticisms. Springer Netherlands 2022-01-17 /pmc/articles/PMC8761537/ /pubmed/35068694 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10838-021-09584-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Williamson, Jon Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction |
title | Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction |
title_full | Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction |
title_fullStr | Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction |
title_full_unstemmed | Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction |
title_short | Direct Inference and Probabilistic Accounts of Induction |
title_sort | direct inference and probabilistic accounts of induction |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8761537/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35068694 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10838-021-09584-0 |
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