A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

BACKGROUND: Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. METHODS: A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0–F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic). RESULTS: By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54–0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.6%) were stage F0–F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0–F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0–F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36–0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48–0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39–0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0–F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0–F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0–F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values. CONCLUSION: This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07042-w.